Bangladesh - Bearing the Brunt of Climate Change

The combination of the geographical location and the geomorphological conditions of Bangladesh's landscape has made it one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters. On top of this, there is a whole host of other problems that hinder the country's ability to cope: poverty and illiteracy, high population density and land shortage. With the increasing greenhouse effect and the consequent sea level rise (SLR), climate change is aggravating and increasing both the frequency and magnitude of the natural disasters that Bangladesh faces every year, stunting its development and economic growth.

World map giving a visual representation of countries ranked by their Climate Risk Index. Calculated by Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, the CRI uses quantitative data from a extreme weather events (e.g. fatalities and economic losses) to produce an average ranking of countries. The highest rankings (1-10 are listed) are the countries at the highest risk from both frequent events and the greatest disasters. (Source)

Severe tropical storms come from the south, stirring in the waters of the Bay of Bengal. These idyllic and sparkling waters are deceptively beautiful; 5.5% of the world's tropical cyclones begin in this ocean. The continental shelf below the bay amplifies the cyclones significantly as it approaches land and causes extreme floods along the coast. This has the most devastating effects in the central region, which lacks the protection from the Mangrove forests of the western region, as well as the hilly terrain of the east. This poorly protected region, combined with a large and dense population, makes it extremely vulnerable to the impacts of flooding and has seen the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones.

Map of Bangladesh showing the population densities inside and outside of a low coastal elevation zone. The darker the red, the more densely populated that area is inside the LECZ. The map shows that the central coastal region to be the most densely populated, whilst also being the most active part of the delta. (Source)

The impacts climate change is likely to have during this century is bad news for Bangladesh. The IPCC (2007) predictions of a 2 °C-4.5 °C rise in temperature by 2100 would see increases in maximum cyclone wind speeds calculated to be 10% to 25%. Coupled with the SLR predictions this could see an unprecedented increase in flooding – just a 1 metre rise in sea level could see 13 million people displaced here.

This is a scary prospect. This country is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, which is ironic since this is so disproportionate to its contribution to global warming. Therefore, there can be no doubt that there needs to be an international responsibility in reducing the consequences of climate change on the innocent.

However, like other vulnerable countries, Bangladesh’s voice is not always heard as strongly in the negotiations as others; the richest and biggest polluters dictate the debate. This is frustrating, because it’s the ones without a voice that desperately need to be listened to. In an attempt to overcome this, in the run up to COP21 in Paris this December, the United Nations Development Programme are supporting countries in engagement and discussions, as well as helping to develop and finalize targets and actions that will become part of the Paris agreement. Preparation is key, because an ambitious outcome at COP21 is one that will accelerate opportunities for climate change action in developing countries and be an important pillar in the post-2015 era of sustainable development.

If this outcome in Paris is not reached, the costs of climate change in this country could result in an annual loss of 2% of GDP by 2050 and 9.4% of GDP by 2100, so it is vital for COP21 to be a success. Even then, this would only be the beginning of an uphill battle of Bangladesh’s survival.